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ATTC Automotive Monthly Report丨February Industry Theme Observation: How China's New Energy Vehicles Will Fight Europe Again in 2025
2025-02-27 09:58:02

In 2025, China's new energy vehicles will face strategic opportunities and multiple challenges in Europe. The European auto industry is under the triple squeeze of overcapacity, the threat of 25% import tariffs in the United States and the new EU carbon emission regulations (93.6 g/km standard), and car companies such as Volkswagen and Stellantis are facing the pressure of layoffs and factory closures and billions of euros in fines. Chinese car companies have seized three major breakthroughs: first, deepen cross-border technical cooperation (such as SAIC Automobile Audi, Leapmotor alliance Stellantis) and export intelligent electric technology; second, use the carbon emission credit trading mechanism to form complementary alliances with traditional car companies; The third is to merge and acquire idle production capacity in Europe to break through trade barriers. Relying on the synergy of "latecomer advantage" and "second growth curve", it has achieved a leap from cost-driven to brand-led. It is recommended to strengthen the policy support system, promote the coordinated overseas expansion of the entire industry chain, and focus on building core competitiveness in areas such as intelligent driving and green energy. In the face of the complex international economic and trade environment, adhere to strategic determination, form a closed loop of "technology-industry-market" in Europe through innovative models such as technology for market and capacity sharing, and accelerate the implementation of China's plan in the transformation of the global automobile industry.

This month's industry theme observation: How will China's new energy vehicles fight Europe again in 2025?

 

  • Another difficult year for the European automotive industry

"It's like a pressure cooker right now, with increasing pressure that forces automakers to make more practical decisions." In a report released on January 16, research consulting firm Gartner described the situation of European car companies as follows. After a tumultuous 2024, the European automotive industry has entered a new year with overcapacity, an energy crisis and transition pains. In 2024, European car companies and parts factories will experience production shutdowns, salary cuts, layoffs, factory closures, and even bankruptcy. In 2025, Trump will return to the White House with the tariff stick, and the EU's stricter new automobile carbon emission regulations will begin to be implemented, and the life of European car companies may not get better. In the new year, in addition to facing more severe industrial competition and economic recession, the Trump administration's tariff stick has brought more uncertainty to Europeans, and the European auto industry is difficult to be optimistic.

  • Troubled businesses

The European automotive industry is in turmoil, and this turmoil seems to show no signs of easing in the short term, and the impact has continued into 2025. Many OEMs and parts manufacturers choose to close some factories and reduce production capacity. For example, the Volkswagen Group plans to close Audi's electric vehicle plant in Brussels, Belgium, by the end of February 2025. Although it will not close its German plant for the time being due to strong opposition from the union, the Volkswagen Group has decided to lay off more than 35,000 people in Germany by 2030 and cut production capacity at its German plant. Ford plans to lay off 4,000 employees in Europe by the end of 2027. Bosch, ZF, Continental, Autoliv, Schaeffler and other large parts suppliers have also launched large-scale layoff plans, and some factories will also be closed.

The European Suppliers Association (CLEPA) states that 2/3 of their members achieve profit margins of less than 5% and 1/4 are in the red. The revenue of these companies is simply not enough to fund the transformation. Especially those companies that bet on EVs early and are struggling financially due to high upfront costs are in for a difficult year. Massive layoffs in 2024 are likely to continue into 2025. According to a survey by the IFO Institute, 41% of steel and metal processing businesses want to lay off skilled workers due to poor operating conditions. This will not happen quietly: in 2025, mass protests and strikes will accompany this development.

  • U.S. punitive tariffs

On February 18, local time, U.S. President Trump said he would impose tariffs of about 25% on imported cars, and he will make more statements on this topic on April 2.

Previously, Trump said on February 14 that he could impose tariffs on imported cars on April 2. Trump has not yet disclosed more details about the tariff plan. But he believes that U.S. exported cars have long been treated unfairly in foreign markets. For example, the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on cars imported from the United States, while the United States only imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported cars from Europe. According to the data, the United States imported more than $50 billion of automotive products from Europe (mainly Germany) in 2024, and the European Union is the third largest source of automobile imports in the United States. Currently, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on imported cars, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on EU-made vehicles. U.S.-Europe auto trade is an important pillar of the success of the European automotive industry, and any disruption to this critical sector will have a significant impact on the European economy. According to the Oxford Economics' trade analysis model, German car exports are likely to fall by 7.1% and Italy's car exports are expected to fall by 6.6% under the threat of US tariffs, making them the two most affected countries. In addition, automobile exports from Spain and France are also expected to decrease by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively.

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Figure 2-1 Graph of the impact of US tariffs on the European automotive industry

The EU is trying to avoid a potential trade war with the United States. Bernd Lange, president of the European Parliament's Trade Committee, told the newspaper that the EU is willing to reduce its import tariffs on US cars from the current 10% to close to the 2.5% imposed by the US on EU cars. It is reported that the European Parliament cannot directly participate in trade negotiations and can only influence the trade policy formulation and negotiation process through legislation and supervision. Lange's words are more like a statement.

The EU hopes to reduce its trade surplus with the United States by reducing tariffs and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas and military equipment from the United States, so as to avoid escalating trade frictions.

If the plan to reduce tariffs is useless and negotiations fail, the EU will use its Anti-Coercion Instruments Act (ACI) tools to fight back and take countermeasures against the service industry, including large US technology companies and financial companies. The Financial Times recently reported that the EU is preparing to use ACI for the first time in response to Trump's tariffs. If the EU uses ACI to counterattack, it will be its harshest response to the threat of US tariffs without violating international law.

  • New environmental bill

In addition to tariffs, European car companies are also facing tougher environmental bills. According to public information, from January 1, 2025, the European Union stipulates that the average carbon dioxide emissions of each new car sold by car companies shall not exceed 93.6 g/km. For CO2 emissions exceeding their specific targets for each newly registered vehicle, the automaker will be fined 95 euros.

Specific to enterprises, according to a report released by data analysis company Dataforce last year, among all manufacturers with internal combustion engine models, only Geely Automobile Group (Volvo, Polestar, etc.) and SAIC Motor (MG) achieved emissions below 93.6g/km. It is followed by Toyota (105g/km) and BMW (106g/km). Tesla easily meets the standard because it sells all zero-emission pure electric vehicles.图片

 The average carbon emissions of cars produced by each car company in Europe in 2024

Other manufacturers need to do more. This is especially true for the Volkswagen Group, Renault, Nissan, Mitsubishi Alliance, and Stellantis. Due to the large sales volume of these companies in Europe, if they cannot reduce their carbon emissions by 2025, they will face fines of 7.7 billion euros, 1.7 billion euros and 1.6 billion euros respectively. Jean-Philippe Imparato, head of Stellantis Europe, told Italian media "Milan Financia" that the company could face a fine of up to 3 billion euros.

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Estimates of carbon emission fines for European car companies

Such sky-high fines will have a huge impact on the profit margin of the company, and it is known that the Volkswagen Group's profit for the whole year of 2024 will only be about 18 billion euros. In order to avoid high fines, European car companies have started a group model, that is, companies that sell a small number of electric vehicles can combine their emissions with industry leaders, that is, buy emissions credits from other automakers to reduce the overall average. Barclays estimates that the cost of a credit for emitting 1 gram of CO2 per kilometer is about 20 euros under possible supply and demand conditions, which is clearly more "economical" than a fine of 95 euros per gram.

These goals are usually achievable if BEVs are more successful in sales, however, given the sluggish state of EVs, manufacturers are now forced to either offer cheaper electric models or drastically reduce sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, which will be to their own detriment.

  • The strategic practice and outlook of Chinese car companies in 2025

European car companies face many difficulties, and for Chinese car companies, this represents an opportunity:

On the one hand, European car companies have chosen to cooperate with other companies to make up for the shortcomings of electrification transformation in the face of the current situation of difficult electrification transformation. Chinese car companies have become a very good choice, and there are several examples of cooperation. For example, SAIC exports intelligent electric technology, Audi is responsible for the hardware of new cars, and works together to create the alphabet Audi; Leapmotor cooperated with global auto giant Stellantis Group to establish Leapmotor International; Xpeng Motors and Volkswagen have become strategic partners, signing four agreements in a row within one year to jointly develop intelligent connected models for the mid-size car market. On the other hand, in the face of EU tariffs, Chinese car companies can break through the trade barriers caused by EU tariffs by purchasing European factories that other car companies are preparing to close, and at the same time use the carbon emission credits of new energy vehicles to hedge and reasonably enhance their competitive advantage in Europe.

At a time when global competition is becoming increasingly fierce, Chinese new energy vehicle companies have gradually occupied a position in the European market with their flexible strategic layout and excellent innovation capabilities, reflecting the organic synergy between "latecomer advantage" and "second growth curve". The theory of "latecomer advantage" emphasizes that enterprises can catch up with advanced enterprises by means of low cost, technology imitation and rapid market entry in the case of relatively limited resources. The "second growth curve" theory points out that after the traditional growth model tends to be saturated, enterprises need to find new growth paths through innovation-driven to achieve a leap from quantitative to qualitative change. The synergy between these two theories is presented as a multi-dimensional development mechanism in the growth trajectory of enterprises, covering an all-round evolution from cost advantage to brand drive, from technological breakthrough to service innovation, from market filling to brand building, which not only lays a foothold for enterprises in the initial competition stage, but also provides a theoretical foundation and strategic guidance for their sustainable growth. From several representative car company strategies, we can see the latecomer advantage of Chinese automobiles in Europe:

    • From Cost Advantage to Brand Driven:

    BYD's entry into Europe first broke through from public transportation, took advantage of cost advantages to open up the market, and then launched high-performance passenger cars, and upgraded the brand through cooperation, participation in auto shows, innovative marketing, etc., to achieve the transformation from cost competition to brand-driven.

    • From technological breakthroughs to service innovations:

    NIO uses battery swapping technology and "battery as a service" model to reduce car purchase costs, build a user ecosystem, and establish an after-sales service network; Aiways relies on smart factories to achieve automated production, lays out intelligent network technology, and cooperates with local enterprises to provide after-sales service, both of which enhance their competitiveness through the coordinated development of technology and services.

    • From market filling to branding:

    Xpeng Motors launched a model with a sense of technology in Europe for the first time, adopting a "direct sales + distribution" model, cooperating with traditional car companies and providing customized after-sales support; Leapmotor opened up the market with intelligent experience and performance advantages, and partnered with Stellantis Group to expand its sales network, and they shaped brand value by filling market gaps and optimizing services.

    The "latecomer advantage" and the "second growth curve" synergy provide a complete development path for Chinese new energy vehicle companies, which enter the European market by accumulating cost and technical advantages, and then achieve a leap from short-term benefits to long-term value through innovation, verifying and expanding relevant theories.

    Looking forward to 2025, the growth of China's new energy vehicles will not only rely more on technological innovation, but also need to seek breakthroughs from the perspective of the industrial chain, by integrating the upstream and downstream of automobiles and realizing the whole automobile industry chain going overseas, which will not only reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, but also allow Chinese automobile suppliers to embrace a broader blue ocean.

    Therefore, although in the face of high tariffs, Chinese car companies should continue to compete in Europe, and pay attention to the following strategies:

    1. First of all, in the long run, the European market will still be the largest overseas market for China's electric vehicles, and powerful car companies should continue to adhere to the European strategy. Strengthen cross-border cooperation and industrial policy coordination to provide stronger support for the internationalization strategy of Chinese new energy vehicle companies, thereby promoting their competitiveness in the global market.

    2. All Chinese car companies that can achieve sales scale in the European electric vehicle market should actively explore the commercial possibilities of points trading with traditional car companies with high carbon emission compliance pressure. In 2025~2035, the demand for carbon emission alliances will exist for a long time.

    3. You can refer to the cooperation model between Leapmotor and Stellantis: European car companies provide mature production capacity and sales networks to achieve localized production and quickly open up the market; Chinese car companies export products to help each other meet carbon emission compliance requirements and achieve a certain amount of income to achieve a win-win situation.

    4. Guided by the national strategy, the state should also introduce more policies to benefit car companies. This policy push can not only mitigate the impact of fluctuations in external factors on enterprises, but also provide necessary guarantees for Chinese companies to expand in the European market.

     

    Compared with the past era of joint ventures of Chinese car companies "exchanging market for technology", a new era of going overseas of "grabbing the market with technology" is kicking off. In 2025, China's new energy vehicle industry will have higher expectations for globalization, and Chinese car companies will also participate in the competitive landscape of the global automobile industry with a new attitude. With the continuous breakthroughs in intelligent driving, efficient batteries and green energy solutions, Chinese new energy vehicle companies are not only expected to consolidate their position in traditional overseas markets, but also lead the future development of the global automotive industry with innovation. To further consolidate and expand market share, China's new energy vehicle companies still need to strengthen the coordination of resource integration, technology research and development, and market expansion, and form a joint force in the European market. This cooperation mechanism can not only stimulate the inherent potential of the industry, but also comprehensively enhance the competitiveness and influence of China's new energy vehicles in the European market, so as to achieve the sustainable development of the industry and the strategic layout of the global market.

    It is foreseeable that the global automotive industry will undergo a more profound transformation in the future. In the context of technological innovation and changes in market demand, China's new energy vehicle companies will seize broader development opportunities through multi-dimensional measures such as deepening industrial chain integration, accelerating the pace of technological innovation, and enhancing brand influence, gradually move from "latecomer" to "leading", and occupy an important position in the global market to achieve "lane change and overtaking" of the entire automobile industry chain.

     

    New technology applications and cutting-edge news at home and abroad

    Honda and Nissan officially canceled merger negotiations

    On February 13, according to Japanese media sources, Honda Motor and Nissan Motor held separate board meetings and officially decided to terminate the merger negotiations previously discussed between the two parties. This decision marks the end of a collaboration between the two Japanese automakers aimed at creating the world's third-largest automaker. Honda Motor announced that it has agreed to terminate the memorandum of understanding it signed with Nissan Motor and Mitsubishi Motors on December 23, 2024 to consider a tripartite cooperation structure. Despite the cancellation of merger negotiations, Honda Motor, Nissan Motor and Mitsubishi Motors will continue to maintain their strategic partnership and collaborate on in-house research and development of batteries, autonomous driving, software and electric vehicle technologies.

     

    Trump "increased" tariffs again! The campaign will start as early as April 2

    According to CCTV news, on February 14, local time, US President Trump said that tariffs on imported cars will be imposed as early as April 2. Trump has not yet disclosed more details about the tariff plan. But he believes that U.S. exported cars have long been treated unfairly in foreign markets. For example, the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on cars imported from the United States, while the United States only imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported cars from Europe. Trump signed a document on the 10th, announcing a 25% tariff on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum, and claimed that he would impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on chips, automobiles, drugs and other products. U.S. allies such as Canada, Germany, and Japan oppose this, believing that the above tariff measures will undermine the multilateral trading system and hinder world economic development, and the United States and its trading partners will suffer huge losses as a result.

     

    Ministry of Commerce: It is in the interests of both parties to properly resolve the EU's countervailing case against electric vehicles in China

    On February 14, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had a video call with Kang Linsong, chairman of the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers and chairman of Mercedes-Benz Group, and the two sides exchanged views on the EU's anti-subsidy case against China and China-EU automobile industry cooperation. Wang Wentao said that China-EU automobile industry cooperation has a solid foundation and broad space, and China welcomes European car companies, including Mercedes-Benz Group, to expand their investment in China and deepen their cultivation of the Chinese market.

     

    Ministry of Ecology and Environment: It will benchmark advanced regulations in Europe and the United States and formulate the national seven standards for light vehicles and heavy vehicles

    On February 24, Li Tianwei, director of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said that the formulation and revision of mobile source standards will be accelerated next. Benchmark advanced European and American regulations, formulate the national seven standards for light vehicles and heavy vehicles, and formulate the fifth standard for non-road mobile machinery, so as to achieve emission control technology in line with the world's advanced level. Promote the "retreat four, govern five, manage six, and promote new" of heavy trucks, that is, the accelerated elimination of trucks of China IV and below, the rectification of China V trucks, the intelligent supervision of China VI trucks, and the replacement application of new energy heavy trucks.

     

    Is DeepSeek expected to define cars?

    Around the Spring Festival of the Year of the Snake, an unprecedented "AI storm" was ignited by DeepSeek. As a cutting-edge carrier empowered by AI, a number of dense DeepSeek "on-car tide" in the car circle is coming, including Geely, Chery, BYD, Great Wall, and Leapmotor about 20 car companies have accessed, and they are "deeply integrated" with it on the car side, eager to seize this new intelligent engine and make a louder roar in the second half of the competition. What is rare is that when other car companies line up to access DeepSeek, "Wei Xiaoli" and "Huamite", which are at the forefront of intelligence and have even begun to grasp AI, are silent in this round of craze. The "car-side revolution" triggered by DeepSeek is catalyzing a new round of intelligent iteration, but it seems to be still far from the imaginary "subversion".